← Retour à l’accueil→→→→→ →→→→→
Cotes bookmakers vs modèle
Pour chaque match upcoming des Big 5 : médiane des cotes (région UE, ~40 bookmakers, 4 français) avec proba implicite après dévignage, comparée à la prédiction Dixon-Coles. C'est une lecture comparée, pas une recommandation (cf. méthodologie).
Cotes intéressantes
Top 5 value bets modèle vs marché ≥5 pt
Frosinone vs Parma
sam. 28 nov. 15:00 · SerA · sur le 1
+26 pt
@ 1.40
Brighton and Hove Albion vs Newcastle United
dim. 29 nov. 15:05 · PL · sur le 1
+15 pt
@ 1.46
Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV
dim. 22 nov. 17:30 · BL · sur le 1
+15 pt
@ 1.56
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Monchengladbach
ven. 27 nov. 20:30 · BL · sur le 1
+14 pt
@ 1.64
Getafe vs Atlético Madrid
dim. 22 nov. 21:00 · Liga · sur le 2
+14 pt
@ 1.52
Plus grosses cotes
Top 5 cotes ≥3.5 sur un outcome
Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Köln
ven. 20 nov. 20:30 · BL · sur le 2
16.00
Modèle 4%
Real Madrid vs Celta Vigo
sam. 21 nov. 21:00 · Liga · sur le 2
10.25
Modèle 14%
Real Madrid vs Alavés
sam. 28 nov. 21:00 · Liga · sur le 2
10.25
Modèle 9%
Hamburger SV vs Bayern Munich
sam. 28 nov. 15:30 · BL · sur le 1
10.00
Modèle 9%
Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient
sam. 28 nov. 20:45 · L1 · sur le 2
9.50
Modèle 9%
96 matchs à venir, 77 avec prédiction modèle (19 skipped — équipe inconnue du train).
Bundesliga (18)
| Date | Domicile | Extérieur | 1X2 — Marché (dévigné) vs Modèle | BM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | ||||
| ven. 20 nov. 20:30 | Bayern Munich | 1. FC Köln | 85% 88% +2.6 | 9% 8% -1.3 | 6% 4% -1.3 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 15:30 | Borussia Monchengladbach | Borussia Dortmund | 20% 20% +0.4 | 22% 23% +1.2 | 58% 57% -1.5 | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 15:30 | Bayer Leverkusen | SC Paderborn | 74% — | 15% — | 11% — | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 15:30 | Elversberg | SC Freiburg | 28% — | 25% — | 47% — | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 15:30 | Union Berlin | RB Leipzig | 19% 22% +3.2 | 21% 25% +3.6 | 60% 53% -6.7 | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 15:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt | TSG Hoffenheim | 41% 44% +2.6 | 24% 22% -1.6 | 35% 34% -1.0 | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 18:30 | FC Schalke 04 | VfB Stuttgart | 25% — | 23% — | 52% — | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 15:30 | Augsburg | FSV Mainz 05 | 35% 36% +1.2 | 25% 28% +3.4 | 40% 36% -4.5 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 17:30 | Werder Bremen | Hamburger SV | 56% 41% -15.2 | 23% 28% +5.2 | 21% 31% +10.0 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| ven. 27 nov. 20:30 | Werder Bremen | Borussia Monchengladbach | 53% 39% -14.0 | 23% 27% +4.1 | 24% 34% +9.9 | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 15:30 | 1. FC Köln | Elversberg | 48% — | 25% — | 27% — | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 15:30 | FSV Mainz 05 | Union Berlin | 62% 50% -12.2 | 21% 27% +6.0 | 17% 23% +6.2 | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 15:30 | Hamburger SV | Bayern Munich | 9% 9% +0.6 | 12% 14% +1.7 | 79% 77% -2.3 | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 15:30 | SC Paderborn | FC Schalke 04 | 41% — | 27% — | 32% — | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 18:30 | VfB Stuttgart | Eintracht Frankfurt | 56% 57% +1.0 | 21% 20% -0.7 | 23% 23% -0.3 | 8(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 15:30 | SC Freiburg | RB Leipzig | 37% 27% -10.2 | 23% 25% +1.1 | 39% 48% +9.1 | 8(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 17:30 | TSG Hoffenheim | Augsburg | 56% 53% -3.0 | 21% 23% +1.9 | 22% 23% +1.1 | 8(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 19:30 | Borussia Dortmund | Bayer Leverkusen | 45% 47% +2.2 | 24% 24% -0.4 | 31% 29% -1.8 | 8(3🇫🇷) |
Ligue 1 (18)
| Date | Domicile | Extérieur | 1X2 — Marché (dévigné) vs Modèle | BM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | ||||
| ven. 20 nov. 20:45 | Troyes | Le Havre | 46% 35% -10.4 | 26% 28% +1.5 | 28% 37% +9.0 | 21(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 17:15 | Nice | Paris Saint Germain | 16% 18% +1.7 | 18% 21% +2.9 | 66% 61% -4.6 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 20:45 | RC Lens | Toulouse | 51% 54% +3.4 | 24% 25% +0.2 | 25% 21% -3.7 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 20:45 | Strasbourg | Brest | 43% 51% +8.0 | 25% 24% -1.3 | 31% 25% -6.7 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 20:45 | AS Monaco | Auxerre | 67% 58% -8.5 | 19% 23% +3.7 | 14% 19% +4.8 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 20:45 | Lille | Lyon | 41% 45% +4.0 | 28% 27% -1.0 | 31% 28% -3.0 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 15:00 | Paris FC | Angers | 69% 57% -12.7 | 19% 25% +6.8 | 12% 18% +5.8 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 17:15 | Lorient | Rennes | 33% 36% +3.0 | 27% 24% -2.4 | 41% 40% -0.5 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 20:45 | Marseille | Le Mans FC | 66% — | 19% — | 15% — | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| ven. 27 nov. 20:45 | Brest | Paris FC | 31% 41% +10.1 | 27% 26% -1.8 | 42% 34% -8.3 | 8(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 17:15 | Angers | RC Lens | 22% 18% -4.5 | 24% 26% +2.6 | 54% 56% +2.0 | 8(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 20:45 | Paris Saint Germain | Lorient | 75% 76% +0.4 | 16% 15% -0.6 | 9% 9% +0.3 | 8(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 20:45 | Le Mans FC | Lille | 23% — | 26% — | 51% — | 7(2🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 20:45 | Nice | Troyes | 55% 62% +7.5 | 24% 21% -2.5 | 21% 16% -5.0 | 8(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 20:45 | Le Havre | Strasbourg | 33% 27% -5.3 | 25% 27% +2.5 | 43% 46% +2.9 | 7(2🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 15:00 | Auxerre | Marseille | 25% 28% +2.9 | 25% 26% +0.8 | 50% 46% -3.7 | 7(2🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 17:15 | Toulouse | Rennes | 35% 38% +3.0 | 26% 25% -0.3 | 40% 37% -2.7 | 8(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 20:45 | Lyon | AS Monaco | 43% 46% +3.5 | 26% 24% -2.3 | 31% 30% -1.3 | 7(2🇫🇷) |
La Liga (20)
| Date | Domicile | Extérieur | 1X2 — Marché (dévigné) vs Modèle | BM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | ||||
| ven. 20 nov. 21:00 | Athletic Bilbao | Espanyol | 63% 54% -8.9 | 22% 25% +3.4 | 15% 21% +5.5 | 20(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 14:00 | Alavés | Deportivo La Coruña | 45% — | 28% — | 27% — | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 16:15 | Rayo Vallecano | Valencia | 47% 44% -3.6 | 28% 30% +2.0 | 25% 27% +1.6 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 18:30 | Sevilla | Real Betis | 32% 32% +0.5 | 27% 25% -2.0 | 41% 43% +1.5 | 19(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 21:00 | Real Madrid | Celta Vigo | 77% 68% -9.2 | 14% 18% +4.0 | 9% 14% +5.1 | 19(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 14:00 | Barcelona | Villarreal | 75% 70% -4.9 | 14% 16% +1.9 | 11% 14% +3.1 | 19(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 16:15 | Real Racing Club de Santander | Real Sociedad | 31% — | 24% — | 45% — | 19(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 18:30 | CA Osasuna | Málaga | 53% — | 26% — | 21% — | 19(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 21:00 | Getafe | Atlético Madrid | 17% 25% +7.8 | 25% 31% +6.2 | 58% 44% -14.0 | 18(3🇫🇷) |
| lun. 23 nov. 21:00 | Levante | Elche CF | 44% 44% -0.6 | 26% 24% -1.5 | 30% 32% +2.1 | 19(4🇫🇷) |
| ven. 27 nov. 21:00 | Levante | Real Racing Club de Santander | 46% — | 24% — | 29% — | 11(2🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 14:00 | Real Betis | Rayo Vallecano | 62% 55% -7.3 | 21% 25% +4.4 | 17% 20% +2.8 | 11(2🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 16:15 | Málaga | Athletic Bilbao | 21% — | 25% — | 54% — | 11(2🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 18:30 | Elche CF | Atlético Madrid | 18% 27% +9.7 | 22% 24% +1.9 | 61% 49% -11.6 | 9(1🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 21:00 | Real Madrid | Alavés | 78% 76% -2.0 | 13% 15% +1.7 | 8% 9% +0.3 | 10(2🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 14:00 | Valencia | CA Osasuna | 45% 40% -4.1 | 27% 28% +0.7 | 28% 32% +3.5 | 10(2🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 16:15 | Deportivo La Coruña | Barcelona | 13% — | 17% — | 70% — | 10(2🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 18:30 | Celta Vigo | Villarreal | 35% 39% +3.7 | 27% 24% -3.3 | 38% 38% -0.4 | 10(2🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 21:00 | Real Sociedad | Sevilla | 43% 56% +12.8 | 27% 22% -4.7 | 30% 22% -8.1 | 10(2🇫🇷) |
| lun. 30 nov. 21:00 | Espanyol | Getafe | 44% 38% -6.3 | 29% 33% +4.5 | 27% 29% +1.8 | 10(2🇫🇷) |
Premier League (20)
| Date | Domicile | Extérieur | 1X2 — Marché (dévigné) vs Modèle | BM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | ||||
| sam. 21 nov. 13:30 | Manchester City | Fulham | 67% 68% +1.2 | 19% 20% +1.8 | 14% 11% -3.0 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 16:00 | Coventry City | Crystal Palace | 40% — | 26% — | 33% — | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 16:00 | Chelsea | Leeds United | 51% 47% -3.6 | 25% 26% +1.1 | 24% 27% +2.5 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 16:00 | Aston Villa | Sunderland | 53% 49% -4.1 | 25% 29% +4.1 | 22% 22% +0.1 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 16:00 | Bournemouth | Nottingham Forest | 47% 42% -4.7 | 27% 28% +1.2 | 26% 30% +3.5 | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 16:00 | Tottenham Hotspur | Ipswich Town | 61% — | 22% — | 17% — | 23(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 18:30 | Newcastle United | Arsenal | 18% 20% +2.8 | 23% 26% +3.2 | 59% 53% -6.0 | 22(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 15:00 | Hull City | Brighton and Hove Albion | 17% — | 21% — | 62% — | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 17:30 | Liverpool | Manchester United | 54% 51% -3.2 | 23% 24% +1.3 | 23% 25% +1.9 | 22(4🇫🇷) |
| lun. 23 nov. 21:00 | Brentford | Everton | 46% 43% -3.1 | 26% 29% +2.8 | 28% 28% +0.3 | 22(4🇫🇷) |
| ven. 27 nov. 21:00 | Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | 35% 40% +5.0 | 27% 28% +1.1 | 38% 32% -6.1 | 10(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 16:00 | Leeds United | Coventry City | 59% — | 23% — | 18% — | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 16:00 | Manchester United | Brentford | 48% 45% -3.0 | 25% 26% +1.1 | 27% 28% +1.9 | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 18:30 | Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | 28% — | 25% — | 47% — | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 13:00 | Everton | Liverpool | 28% 30% +1.9 | 26% 28% +1.4 | 46% 42% -3.3 | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 15:05 | Sunderland | Tottenham Hotspur | 29% 38% +9.0 | 28% 30% +1.9 | 43% 32% -10.9 | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 15:05 | Fulham | Bournemouth | 36% 36% -0.1 | 27% 28% +1.4 | 37% 36% -1.3 | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 15:05 | Crystal Palace | Hull City | 51% — | 25% — | 24% — | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 15:05 | Brighton and Hove Albion | Newcastle United | 60% 44% -15.4 | 22% 26% +4.4 | 19% 30% +11.0 | 9(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 17:30 | Arsenal | Manchester City | 46% 43% -2.7 | 26% 29% +2.9 | 27% 27% -0.2 | 9(3🇫🇷) |
Serie A (20)
| Date | Domicile | Extérieur | 1X2 — Marché (dévigné) vs Modèle | BM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | ||||
| sam. 21 nov. 15:00 | Como | Cagliari | 71% 67% -4.0 | 18% 21% +3.1 | 11% 12% +0.9 | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 15:00 | Lazio | Lecce | 68% 57% -11.8 | 19% 28% +9.2 | 12% 15% +2.5 | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 18:00 | Parma | AS Roma | 11% 16% +5.3 | 18% 26% +8.5 | 71% 57% -13.8 | 21(4🇫🇷) |
| sam. 21 nov. 20:45 | Napoli | Torino | 64% 62% -2.2 | 21% 23% +2.1 | 15% 15% +0.1 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 12:30 | Juventus | Venezia | 69% 70% +1.0 | 19% 21% +1.8 | 12% 9% -2.7 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 15:00 | Bologna | Udinese | 54% 43% -10.9 | 26% 27% +1.7 | 20% 30% +9.2 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 15:00 | Sassuolo | Genoa | 38% 41% +2.8 | 28% 28% +0.7 | 34% 31% -3.5 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 18:00 | AC Milan | Frosinone | 61% 69% +8.2 | 21% 19% -1.6 | 19% 12% -6.6 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| dim. 22 nov. 20:45 | Atalanta BC | Inter Milan | 21% 27% +6.2 | 22% 25% +3.3 | 58% 48% -9.5 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| lun. 23 nov. 20:45 | Monza | Fiorentina | 27% 21% -6.6 | 25% 26% +0.6 | 47% 53% +6.0 | 20(4🇫🇷) |
| ven. 27 nov. 20:45 | Venezia | Bologna | 26% 24% -2.6 | 26% 28% +1.9 | 48% 48% +0.6 | 11(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 15:00 | Frosinone | Parma | 62% 35% -26.5 | 21% 29% +7.9 | 17% 36% +18.6 | 11(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 18:00 | Torino | Lazio | 27% 29% +1.5 | 27% 28% +1.1 | 45% 43% -2.5 | 11(3🇫🇷) |
| sam. 28 nov. 20:45 | Inter Milan | Genoa | 73% 74% +1.1 | 17% 17% -0.2 | 10% 9% -1.0 | 11(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 12:30 | Udinese | Fiorentina | 29% 39% +10.1 | 26% 28% +1.9 | 45% 33% -11.9 | 7(2🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 15:00 | Sassuolo | Napoli | 22% 25% +3.1 | 24% 27% +3.2 | 55% 48% -6.3 | 11(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 18:00 | AS Roma | Monza | 74% 77% +2.6 | 16% 16% +0.4 | 10% 7% -3.0 | 11(3🇫🇷) |
| dim. 29 nov. 20:45 | Como | Juventus | 42% 38% -4.5 | 27% 30% +3.1 | 31% 33% +1.4 | 11(3🇫🇷) |
| lun. 30 nov. 18:30 | Lecce | Atalanta BC | 26% 13% -12.6 | 26% 25% -0.3 | 49% 61% +12.9 | 11(3🇫🇷) |
| lun. 30 nov. 20:45 | Cagliari | AC Milan | 21% 21% -0.1 | 25% 26% +1.1 | 54% 53% -1.0 | 11(3🇫🇷) |
Comment lire ce tableau ?
- Pour chaque issue (1 / X / 2), trois nombres : marché dévigné (proba implicite des cotes après suppression de la marge bookmaker) en gris ; modèle en gras ; écart modèle-marché en %.
- Un écart vert (modèle plus optimiste) = cote sous-estimée par le marché selon Dixon-Coles. Un écart rouge = surévaluée. Un écart proche de 0 = consensus.
- L'écart attendu pour un baseline N1 sans contexte est de l'ordre de ±3 % (cf. méthodologie / robustesse). Au-delà, l'écart peut refléter soit un signal manqué par le modèle (compositions, blessures), soit une vraie inefficience locale du marché.
- Cette page est un outil d'aide à la décision, pas une recommandation de pari (ADR-004).
Cotes mises à jour le sam. 14 nov. 18:25.